COVID-19 Update from Dr. Mark Wilson, Jefferson County Health Department

Update:  August 19, 2021 - Call to Action - See Supporting Documents

New cases of COVID-19 in Jefferson County are rapidly increasing – from a low of 13 cases per day about 1 month ago, to over 80 cases per day. In other words, they have increased over 7-fold in just one month. (See the graph below. Note that the last couple of days are typically lower than the real number, because some results are still pending.)
Our percent positive rate for the county has gone from a low of 1.8% to 6.2% as of last week.
The daily number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Jefferson County was about 30 near the end of June. Now there are over 100, and that number is expected to continue rising. 

The Delta variant of the virus is now the predominant strain in Alabama (roughly 80% or so). It is much more contagious than the original strain. There have been case reports of transmissions of this variant from person-to-person contacts of just a few seconds.
We are seeing more breakthrough cases, i.e. cases among fully vaccinated people. This was expected, since the original studies of the vaccines showed at best they about 95% effective in preventing disease, which means 5% of vaccinated people exposed to the virus were expected to get symptoms. Now that we are seeing more cases in the general population along with the emergence of the Delta variant, this means there are more exposures. The good news for vaccinated people is that they are still MUCH less likely to end up hospitalized or dying from COVID-19 than unvaccinated people.
We are ALSO seeing, from information sent to us by ADPH, more second infections, i.e. people who had COVID-19 before who have gotten it again. The last count I saw was approximately 5,000 cases of second infections in Alabama, and so far this has been about 4 times more common than vaccine breakthrough cases. To be safe, previously infected people should get vaccinated to help boost their natural immunity.
Alabama vaccination rates can be viewed at ADPH’s COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Dashboard. If you click on the tab labeled “% Receiving Vaccine,” you’ll see a map of all the counties; click on a county to see its vaccination rates. For Jefferson County, 36% of the total population has been fully vaccinated, and 45% has received at least one dose. Unfortunately, the Delta variant has moved the goal post for the vaccination rate required to achieve herd immunity. Epidemiologists now estimate that rate to be around 80 – 85%.

SUGGESTED ACTIONS:

Please do whatever you can to make sure your constituents are aware of the increased risk out there right now.
Please do whatever you can to influence others to be vaccinated as soon as possible.
In the meantime, people who are not fully vaccinated should be wearing masks when they are indoors with other people. Everyone needs to be reminded that masks are to protect other people, not just themselves. I think this is being missed in most “mask optional” messages. It is still true that we need to help protect one another.
Strongly consider reinstituting mask requirements in the indoor spaces under your control, unless you have a way of knowing that everyone in that space is fully vaccinated.

JCDH ACTIONS:

We have never stopped requiring masks in the public-facing parts of our facilities.
We just re-instituted a universal mask requirement for all indoor areas of our facilities, including non-public areas, wherever individuals may come into contact with others.
We are continuing our media campaign to encourage vaccination.
We plan to hold a news conference later this week to increase awareness of our rapidly worsening situation, further encourage vaccination, give some facts and guidance around mask-wearing, and answer media questions.